After a sluggish start to the year, commercial real estate finally showed some muscle in Q3 2025. Big ticket transactions came back in a serious way, with large single asset deals over $10 million driving a sharp rebound in activity. Investors who had been sitting on the sidelines appear ready to move again, signalling renewed confidence that pricing has stabilised and opportunity is back on the table, which should reassure industry professionals about market resilience.
The numbers tell the story. Large US CRE deals totalled about $76.4 billion in Q3, accounting for nearly 68 per cent of all single asset investment dollars. Deal count jumped 48 per cent from the prior quarter and 41 per cent from a year earlier, hitting the highest level seen since 2022. Even more striking, this was the fastest growth rate for large deals in more than a decade when you strip out the post-pandemic surge. After months of uncertainty, capital is clearly finding its way back into sizeable transactions.
Commercial real estate data shows that this rebound is not just about volume but also about composition. Large deals made up a bigger share of overall activity than they have in years, suggesting investors are willing to place concentrated bets on individual properties again rather than spreading risk thin. Industrial, retail, and multifamily assets are beginning to see firmer pricing, which should inspire confidence, while office continues to lag, highlighting ongoing challenges.
Despite the surge, this is not a return to the frenzy of 2021. Median large deal size in Q3 came in at $19.6 million, roughly 9 per cent below peak levels. Every major property type remains under its historical high, with office standing out as the weakest performer after a long slide in deal size. Still, there are signs of healing. Median transaction sizes have climbed nearly 5 per cent from their post-pandemic low, led by a notable rebound in multifamily deals. Pricing per square foot has also stabilised overall, even as office prices continue to soften.
So why the sudden optimism? Part of it comes down to shifting expectations around interest rates. A 50 basis point Fed cut in September, with more potentially ahead, is easing pressure on cap rates and valuations. However, risks such as policy uncertainty, elevated capital costs, and potential lender tightening remain. While fewer lenders are tightening standards and alternative sources of capital are becoming more active, these factors could influence the sustainability of the recovery.
The big question is whether this momentum can last. Office still faces structural hurdles, but other sectors appear to be finding their footing, and investors are proving they are ready to write larger checks again. Q3 2025 did not mark a full comeback, but it did deliver the clearest signal yet that liquidity is returning to the top end of the CRE market, encouraging industry professionals to see a promising outlook ahead.
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