The USA Leaders
July 17, 2025
Beijing – Pop Mart’s journey from niche collectible startup to global cultural sensation has been nothing short of exhilarating. But now, just as the brand races ahead with forecasts of a 350% profit leap, the thrill ride is beginning to shake. Pop Mart investors are unimpressed, not because the numbers aren’t big, but because the risks are bigger. With blind box backlash, regulatory turbulence, and IP overreliance looming overhead, is Pop Mart still climbing—or are we nearing the peak before the plunge?
Regulatory Shockwave: A Sudden Drop on the Track
The first dip came in June 2025, when China’s People’s Daily criticized blind box mechanics for promoting addictive behavior among youth. Though Pop Mart wasn’t directly named, the warning was loud enough. The company’s shares nosedived by more than 12% in a single week—its steepest fall since late 2023.
Pop Mart investors are unimpressed by management’s calm response, especially given the precedent set by earlier government crackdowns on gaming and tutoring. With proposed measures like price caps, age restrictions, and forced odds transparency under discussion, investors fear the rules of the ride are about to change mid-loop.
Consumer Fatigue: When the Ride Feels Repetitive
The “blind box” experience once felt like a rollercoaster—unpredictable, thrilling, and addictive. But for many longtime fans, the excitement is wearing off. Roughly 43% of seasoned collectors now plan to scale back, citing design fatigue and excessive commercialization.
Pop Mart is still pulling in younger, social-media-hyped buyers, but the split in audience behavior makes long-term momentum uncertain. And when a brand lives and dies by its fan engagement, a fractured base is a flashing red warning light.
Pop Mart investors are unimpressed with the overdependence on viral moments and fanfare instead of sustainable, diversified appeal.
Valuation Whiplash: Too High to Hold?
Even Pop Mart’s massive 2025 forecast—350% profit and 200% revenue growth—wasn’t enough to lift its stock. In fact, the market responded with a 6% drop. Why? Analysts argue that investors have already priced in the hype. Any sign of deceleration now feels like a sharp turn without brakes.
Morgan Stanley went as far as removing Pop Mart from its China and Hong Kong focus list, citing the fading novelty of its core offerings and concerns over international scalability. Morningstar analysts echoed this, stating that the company’s valuation was “priced for perfection,” leaving no margin for even minor missteps.
IP Dependency: Betting Too Much on One Character
Labubu might be a global sensation, but its dominance reveals a dangerous reliance on a narrow band of characters. Together with Molly and SKULLPANDA, a small set of IPs accounts for more than 40% of Pop Mart’s total revenue. That’s a thrilling high—until the trend turns.
Pop Mart is making strides to diversify, venturing into jewelry, global IP licensing, and lifestyle collaborations. But those efforts are still maturing. If Labubu fatigue sets in, or if licensing negotiations falter, the plunge could be swift.
Pop Mart investors are unimpressed with how tightly the company’s fortunes are tied to characters whose appeal could fade as quickly as it rose.
Global Expansion: Thrilling, But Fraught with Loops
Pop Mart’s expansion into North America, Southeast Asia, and Europe has been meteoric. In Q1 2025 alone, U.S. revenues surpassed all of 2024. But scaling globally comes with high-stakes loops: fierce competition, cultural localization challenges, and geopolitical risk. With 70% of manufacturing still rooted in Dongguan, China, any disruption—be it tariffs or supply chain strain—could derail the brand’s momentum.
Moreover, Western regulators are beginning to take aim at the same blind box mechanics that triggered scrutiny in China. If global rules tighten, Pop Mart’s entire growth engine could face friction.
For now, international markets are cushioning domestic instability—but Pop Mart investors are unimpressed by the fragility of that cushion.
Final Drop or Another Climb?
Pop Mart remains one of the most talked-about toy brands on the planet. But for all its buzz, the thrill of the blind box may be wearing thin among seasoned investors. Concerns over regulatory blowback, fanbase fatigue, and overvalued stock prices have turned what once looked like a rocket into a risky ride.
Pop Mart investors are unimpressed, not because the company lacks vision, but because the track ahead is filled with turns, and no one’s sure if the brakes are working.
Will Pop Mart reinvent the ride and soar again, or is it about to derail under its own speed?
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